AAP and Hype Cycle

AAP and the Hype Cycle

Hype  cycle is a branded graphical tool developed and used by IT research firm Gartner,  representing the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. It is amazing to see how beautifully this Hype cycle curve fits in most of the phenomena of day-to-day life.

Basically Hype cycle talks about 5 phases of any new product/technology that is launched:

1.       Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

2.       Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.

3.       Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

4.       Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

5.       Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

Let’s map these 5 phases to rise of AAP (Aam Admi Party)

1.       Mass Movement Trigger: Kejriwal and the team associated with the movement worked on a number of groundbreaking initiatives; Right to Information Act; Jan Lokpal Bill, Mohalla Sabha and Referendum participation of citizens in decision making process for welfare of the locality.

2.       Peak of Inflated Expectations: Kejriwal makes the sensational announcement of forming the AAP and contest Delhi elections. Promised to bring the electricity bills down to a fraction; free water; abolish VIP culture; no red beacons, no government cars or bungalow for the ministers, use of public transport, no security for the ministers, charge sheet all the corrupt politicians and government employees, upliftment of governance, infrastructure of NCT, bring the crime down, everything in Delhi to be hunky dory, every citizen to feel empowered and on sky 9 under the rule of Kejriwal.

3.       Trough of Disillusionment:  Slowly the sheen of promises made by AAP starts wearing off.  Kejriwal  gets judged and stopped by his own set high standards to move to a decent Chief Minister bungalow. His ministers get Toyota cars minus red beacon. The announcement of electricity and water rates looked more like rejig and misleading jugglery of numbers with little net benefit to the citizens. Refusal of apparent security cover by AAP members indirectly adds 10 times more burden on police to arrange sheath security. Rakhi Birlan added to confusion by making noise about her car being attacked by opposition, only to discover that it was just a cricket ball which came in the way unintentionally. Kejriwal asks hurriedly to withdraw the case. People feel disappointed that suddenly Kejriwal and his side kick Viswas stopped their relentless rant against the corrupt politicians (Rahul baba , Shiela Dixit, Vijay Goel and others) whom they vowed to bring to books after coming to power. Night shelter in 5 unused bus for homeless people was a noble gesture but not up to the expectations people had formed of AAP.
CItizens nervously wait to see something more tangible; more radical than this. The chaos at the first junta durbar set up by Kejriwal did not help the cause either. Critics start raising their head. Murmurs get louder and AAP feels the heat of public glare and scrutiny.  Helplessly they realize how the opposition takes them to task for every statement they make. Embarrassingly Kejriwal has to refute Prashant Bhushan’s statement on Kashmir security and his side kick Kumar Vishwas had to apologize for his insensitive remark about Muslims 8 years ago!
Kejrival and his team learn with pain that now they also need to apologize for their actions and look for covers. Till this time, they only knew how to attack. They felt the whole world owed them an answer and they had birth right to make any allegation on any public figure.

However, this is the most important juncture for AAP and can be a game changer.It is to be seen if Kejrival and AAP learn their lessons and get through the Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity. Public voted them to power as they gave the hope of cleaning the system; bring effective governance and sustainable growth, prosperity and security to the common man. They have a tight timeline and formidable competition in Narendra Modi and BJP. One wrong move and you are out of the equation. The common man has always been impressionable. For starters, Kejriwal and his team succeeded to make the right first impression but if they do not rise through the next 2 phases of Hype cycle; they might get reduced to another political party. 

Kejriwal - the good thief

Once I was invited by my friend for lunch at his place. At the dining table; my friend and his wife had a small problem. Their 2 and half year old bundle of joy was adamant she wanted pasta for lunch while they had prepared rice. No matter how much they would plead and cajole; the kid would not relent.

Thanks to having 3 younger siblings; I have some experience in babysitting and handling obstinate toddlers. I started a conversation with my friend, pretending to totally ignore the child.

“Look, all this rice is for me. Do not give any rice to Nimmi. Give only pasta to Nimmi. Only I will eat this tasty rice.  This rice is only for me.”

“Mama, give me rice” Nimmi suddenly announced.

“No, you cannot have rice. You have to eat pasta only” I played tough.

“No! I will eat rice only!” the kid screamed in a determined voice.

It speaks volumes about Kejriwal’s acumen and shrewdness that he handled the veteran seasoned politicians of Congress and BJP with the same ease as I handled the kid.

I remember the 2010-11 period when Anna’s movement (mastermind by Kejriwal) had caught the imagination of the Indian public. Cornered by the mass movement; Congress and BJP were daring team Anna to join mainstream politics. As if to get them committed on their words; Kejriwal went on length to reiterate that they are apolitical and will never come to politics.

I remember Manish Tiwari, a spokesperson from congress singing “Tadbeer se bigdi hui takdeer bana le; apne pe bharosa ho to ek daun laga le”. “File your nomination from Chandni chowk” he challenged Kejriwal. Many others made similar comments.
“He is not fit for a municipal seat” others mocked.

All these words were music to the ears of Kejriwal. Congress and BJP got castled completely. Now Kejriwal announced his plans to join active politics. The immediate fall out was split in Team Anna. Kejriwal had already calculated the price he had to pay. The good news for him was that Congress and BJP had lost their chance to accuse Kejriwal’s political ambition behind his movements.

Circa Dec 2013 feels like déjà vu. AAP has astonished everyone with its performance in Delhi Elections but just falls short of clear majority to form the government.
Kejriwal beats the rhetoric. “I vow on my 2 kids; I will never form a government with support of Congress or BJP.”
Congress and BJP both bite the bait and start prodding Kejriwal to accept the mandate given by junta and form the government. Kejriwal ignores them. He chooses to be silent for next 10 days. Congress and BJP get buoyant on their conviction that they have caught Kejriwal on the wrong foot. What Kejriwal was doing was to wait and let Congress and BJP make all the persuasion to him to form the government.

Now he accepts to form the Government in Delhi. Congress and BJP appear fools in front of him. They have lost their opportunity to taunt that Kejriwal is power hungry.

Now, the breed of politicians in our country is thick skinned. I do not expect a Manish Tiwari or Kapil Sibbal or Vijay Goel or Dijvijay Singh to look apologetic and ashamed. However, they are alarmed and intimidated. For now, Kejriwal has beaten them on their own turf. What Kejriwal has achieved is no mean feat.

Am I elated by the win of the common man? Not still. My instincts tells me that Kejriwal’s win is not win of light over darkness and hence no cause for celebrating an early Diwali. Kejriwal has just won the battle of wits. How virtuous he is and how just his governance would be; is to be seen. In all fairness, we need to give him time of next 1 year to deliver and run the government.

Let’s recount some of the handles Kejriwal used to garner his popularity; some of the moves being highly populist and unfair in my personal opinion.

Ø  He gets some picture of Sheila Dixit sharing stage with singer Honey Singh and declares her responsible for all rapes happening in Delhi

Ø  A girl is brutally raped in a moving bus in Delhi and Kejriwal caught the opportunity to blame it on Sheila Dixit. Thousands of young men joined him in condemning Shiela’s government. None of the youth in the crowd is asked to retrospect and accept if they ever were involved in eve teasing; stalking or making unwelcome move towards the opposite sex.

Ø  He found some people not willing to pay for their electricity bills; he goes and reconnects their electricity lines.

Ø  Promise to regularize all the illegal colonies in Delhi.

Ø  Promises to provide free 800 litres water to all the houses.

Ø  Promises to slash Electricity bills by half.

Ø  Encourages people to take law in their own hands

What he is doing is not something done for the first time. I find many of his traits matching with Mamata Banerjee. She has been ruling Bengal by her populist policies; not necessarily by bringing better governance or making significant upliftment  in the lives of masses. When these movements get uncontrolled; they turn into point of no return like naxalite, maosit menace we have seen in India.

What is Kejriwal’s message here?

Does he approve of everyone who wants to encroach and put up illegal settlement in Delhi or is he saying that he has done it only one time to win the elections and after he comes in power; no one should settle illegally and respect law?

Similar questions pop up about electricity. Do the electricity companies have right to discontinue supply if the consumers stop paying for bills or not?

What will he do if Haryana or UP refuses to provide free water to Delhi?

Knowing the grit of Kejriwal, I know he is in for a long haul here. He has already thrown hints of his game plan. He has told that he would not shy from prosecuting Robert VAdra, Sheila Dixit of BJP politicians. He can use this effectively to blackmail the Congress and BJP to give in to his demands; no matter how unreasonable they may sound.

Key point is; Kejriwal has nothing to lose while the Congress and BJP have everything on stake. If his government is toppled; he will say that Congress and BJP were scared that he will prosecute their corrupt practices. So, I expect a lot of dirty linens being washed in public. Nonetheless, is very good for our democracy. Feel very happy with defeat of the veterans by the rookie.
Time will tell if Kejriwal was modern day Jayaprakash Narayan or just a V. P. Singh. Hypersmash.com

What I make out of Robert Vadra Allegations

The allegations are not new. We saw them sometime back going around facebook circuits. There was one post which showed a magazine clipping from Switzerland which noted that Rajeev Gandhi was one of the top depositors in Swiss Banks alongside dictators like Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Hosni Mubaraks. There were graphical details of Robert Vadra's expanding empire and he being the fastest billionaire of India.
Perhaps the less damaging was the one which revealed that Sonia and Rahul are still Italian citizens and that Rahul was expelled from Harvard and he got admission in St. Stephen's on Christian sportsperson (shooter) quota. (Thanks to Subramanian Swamy!)
       Putting allegations on Gandhi-Nehru family is not new. Is perhaps a national pastime. Since my childhood I have been hearing conspiracy theories like Indira Gandhi being scared of Sanjay Gandhi and she stage managing his accident; Rajiv in turn got suspicious of Indira and got her killed. There are also theories that after the shootout; she could have been saved if she was taken to AIIMS which was supposed to be designated hospital for the Prime Minister. Sonia made the ambulance loose valuable time by forcing it to go in circles and reach LNJP hospital which proved fatal. We have heard of the excesses the Indira-Sanjay nexus did in India during the emergency. Going further back; Nehru's ambition and lust for power got us loose Pakistan. That is to say, if he had given in to Mohammed Ali Jinnah's ambition and lust for power; India and Pakistan could have remained unified under the able leadership of Jinnah.

There is a dilemma of judgement. Should I respect Ashoka as a great ruler of Ancient India? At the face of it, it looks yes. He was among the first to unify large parts of India. He adopted Buddhism and spread this peaceful religion of tolerance and calm to many parts of the world. But do these actions make him clean of the acts of violence and immense blood shed in Kalinga (Odisha) and elsewhere? If today I have to consider Ashoka as a great person overall; can the same analogy be put to our Gandhi family and say that whatever happened happened. If you do more good than evil for the nation; we will forgive and forget whatever you ventured into past.
Tajmahal was built by using forced labour which included lots of child labour. Many of the workers lost their limbs and eyesight due to the strenuous nature of work. Hands of the chief architect were chopped off so that he doesn't create another marvel. Should we still consider Taj Mahal a National Pride?

As more and more transparency comes into our system and media and new found awareness instill in our Indian Society; hopefully the Politicians of the ruling party and the non ruling party will get exposed. If we talk about corrupt people in Congress; we also know how our other leaders are. Jayalalitha, Karunanidhi, Mulayam, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad, Devegowda, Kumaraswamy, Jagan Mohan Reddy, Narendra Modi, Mamta Banerjee, Nitin Gadkari.. do any of them give us a better alternative?  Nothing like it if we get an clean honest alternative to Congress. But if our expose operations make Indian republic topple like Libya, Iraq, Afganishtan; would you still support it?