Finally the much awaited results of Indian General Elections
are out. The agility of world’s largest democracy has taken the world by awe. India
shows the world how to decide the fate of a nation in most peaceful and perhaps
most constructive way.
While the elections have sprung many surprises; none
compares the fate of the newly formed AAP (Aam Admit Party) and its founder Mr.
Arvind Kejriwal. To many, he was the youngest star born on the horizons of
Indian Politics. His rise was unconventional and for a good time he gave all
those veteran seasoned politicians a good run for their money. His guerilla
warfare antics kept all on their toes.
The pinnacle of his popularity and success was the point
where AAP made its debut in Delhi Assembly elections. Kejriwal humbled the
Goliath in Congress and BJP to claim the top seat in Delhi Elections.
Kejriwal had two choices here.
Choice 1:
Toil as Delhi Chief Minister and attempt to fulfill all the utopian promises made to win the elections. Grow from strength to strength. Show sincerity in accomplishing the claims made in the state elections manifesto. At the same time; grow organically as a national party; perhaps focus on PHD (Punjab, Haryana, Delhi) in the upcoming National Elections.
Toil as Delhi Chief Minister and attempt to fulfill all the utopian promises made to win the elections. Grow from strength to strength. Show sincerity in accomplishing the claims made in the state elections manifesto. At the same time; grow organically as a national party; perhaps focus on PHD (Punjab, Haryana, Delhi) in the upcoming National Elections.
Choice 2:
Takht ya Taboot
Takht ya Taboot
Go all out for whole of India. Delhi Chief Minster seat is
too small to fulfill the ambitions of Kejriwal. It is not possible to do
justice to the seat of Chief Minister in Delhi and follow the national dream.
Dump the CM seat and go back to the streets and take all the bigwigs head on. The
risk is to lose whatever is at hand and the reward is the top post of the
nation.
I am no political pundit or psephologist but what gives me liberty
to make my own version of audacious analysis and hindsight is that probability of
me being right or wrong is same as of those who are doing this for a living:- 50%.
We all know that Kejriwal led AAP went for Choice 2 and now
we all know the consequences of it.
Let’s try to muse a bit on what would have happened if AAP went for the first choice.
Let’s try to muse a bit on what would have happened if AAP went for the first choice.
Simulation, if AAP went for Choice 1;
Both Congress and BJP would be too happy to keep Kejriwal
contained in Delhi region and would have conceded to a number of his eccentric
demands. After Delhi results; there was a fear psychosis in BJP and Congress circles
about Kejriwal’s ability to churn out unpredictable results in national
elections.
Kejriwal could have shown off his moral and character superiority on BJP and Congress and perhaps would have won 20 odd seats in PHD region. There was a clear BJP wave this time. BJP had a set of staunch supporters who were adamant to vote him to power. AAP and Congress divided amongst themselves the votes of people who were anti BJP/Narendra Modi. If AAP had not fielded its candidates from all the constituencies; due to vote consolidation; perhaps UPA could have won 30-40 more seats at national level. In that scenario; BJP would have to seek alliances from other regional parties to form Government.
Kejriwal could have shown off his moral and character superiority on BJP and Congress and perhaps would have won 20 odd seats in PHD region. There was a clear BJP wave this time. BJP had a set of staunch supporters who were adamant to vote him to power. AAP and Congress divided amongst themselves the votes of people who were anti BJP/Narendra Modi. If AAP had not fielded its candidates from all the constituencies; due to vote consolidation; perhaps UPA could have won 30-40 more seats at national level. In that scenario; BJP would have to seek alliances from other regional parties to form Government.
It is said that behind every successful man there is a woman
and behind every unsuccessful man; there are two! Narendra Modi attributes his
success to one woman; his mother. Imagine the situation where BJP did not have
clear majority and Narendra Modi would have to depend on two women; Mamata Didi
and Jayalalitha Amma! NDA might still have gone ahead and claimed the power at
centre but it would have been a much humbled and limited in capacity.
I feel very thankful to Kejriwal that he went all out at
national level. This allowed BJP to have clear majority. In my opinion; the
growth vision of Congress and BJP are more or less the same. It is only the
limitation of working under the control of irritant and demanding allies that slows
down the progress and materialization of all the progressive projects.
I am sure; NaMo will do a sterling job in taking the growth of Indian nation to a new height. Congress could also have done similar things if they had clear mandate. Also job rotation is good as it helps flow of out of the box ideas that have incubated all this while. So, I expect more from BJP at this point of time.
I am sure; NaMo will do a sterling job in taking the growth of Indian nation to a new height. Congress could also have done similar things if they had clear mandate. Also job rotation is good as it helps flow of out of the box ideas that have incubated all this while. So, I expect more from BJP at this point of time.
Coming to the fate of rising star, Arvind Kejriwal; I am
tempted to draw an analogy from a branch of Astronomy, Formation of stars. It
is said that the new stars like our own sun undergo fusion reaction under the
force of gravity where Hydrogen atoms combine to form Helium; releasing
tremendous amount of energy in the process. When all the Hydrogen exhausts;
under constant gravitational pull; the Helium atoms undergo further fusion to
form Carbon atoms and thus goes the formation of heavier elements. This does
not go on forever for all the stars!. The
big stars, which are 8 times or more massive to our own Sun explode in a
spectacular Supernova. If the mass of the star is similar to our own sun; the
most probable fate of the star is to become white dwarf. After all the Hydrogen
has converted into Helium; the smaller stars swell into a red giant stage and
eventually shed off the outer layers. What remains is the corpse of the star; a
dim remnant where no Hydrogen fusion occurs. No fireworks come out of them.
Kejriwal attempted to explode like a Supernova but has
shrunk to a white dwarf. He and his Aam Admi Party may remain there for a good
long time but I do not expect any spectacular rise of his party again. The
novelty of AAP antics has turned into predictability and an all-powerful Modi
Sarkar will crush his road side agitations with brutal force if he tries them
again. He is also expected to lose much of his red-giant layers of supporters
as people have got disillusioned in masses and have their doubts in ability of
this man to deliver anything tangible apart from dharnas.
So, I take the liberty to write off Mr. Arvind Kejriwal.
R.I.P AAP
R.I.P AAP
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